An Investigation into Economic Migration with Special Reference to Kosova

Abstract

The literature on the economics of migration is immense and it provides three different conceptual
frameworks to model the decision to emigrate. In addition to differences among these
three models, there are inconsistencies between previous studies within each approach in terms
of theoretical rationales for inclusion of variables and their main empirical results.
Recently, the literature has focussed more on the effects of migration from the perspective of the
home countries, with efforts towards seeking a consensus on the appropriate model of migration
decision-making left aside. This thesis is an attempt to fill this gap in the literature. Given the
importance of social relations and the system of values, the household is arguably the most
appropriate decision-making unit among KS- Albanian households. This thesis tests the applicability
of a household perspective in modelling Kosovan migration behaviour. A theoretical framework is
outlined where the household as the decision-making unit is modelled as maximising the sum of total
expected present value of utilities from current and future household consumption at home and
abroad. This theoretical framework is transformed into an empirical proposition that investigates
the determinants of whether households plan to send at least one member abroad using a Kosova data
set of 2007. This does not cover the second stage of decision making, of which household member(s)
will be send. The empirical results are broadly in line with the theoretical expectations of this
conceptual framework. The results from the propensity to emigrate suggest that the attitudinal
variable, which is unique to this thesis and controls for whether the household head perceives that
household income has decreased, is an important determinant. This household perspective is
developed to consider the decision on the duration of emigration. The empirical results provide
fairly broad support for the theoretical expectations of the model. Additionally, the results
indicate that, in addition to economic factors, the prevailing political situation may be important
in determining the probability of return conditional on migration duration. Given the major
political change in Kosova in 2008, the model developed is further tested by considering its
stability over time. The empirical results suggest that the model structure has remained stable
over the period of investigation. A further examination based on data from the Albanian LSMS 2008
suggests that the household approach may have greater applicability to migration behaviour in that
country. In summary, notwithstanding the countries were chosen to favour the household approach,
the results obtained provide broad support for the extended formulation of the household approach.