Time series modelling strategies for road traffic accident and injury data: a case study

The paper aims to provide insights of choosing suitable time series models and analysing road traffic accidents and injuries taking road traffic accident (RTA) and injuries (RTI) data in Oman as a case study as the country faces one of the highest numbers of road accidents per year. Data from January 2000 to June 2019 from several secondary sources were gathered. Time series decomposition, stationarity and seasonality checking were performed to identify the appropriate models for RTA and RTI. SARIMA (3, 1, 1)(2, 0, 0)(12) and SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(1, 0, 2)(12) models were found to be the best for the road traffic accident and injury data, respectively, comparing many different models. AIC, BIC and other error values were used to choose the best model. Model diagnostics were also performed to confirm the statistical assumptions and two-year forecasting was performed. The analyses in this paper would help many Government Departments, academic researchers and decision-makers to generate policies to reduce accidents and injuries.