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A parametric Markov renewal model for predicting tropical cyclones in Bangladesh

ASADUZZAMAN, Md and Latif, Mahbub (2014) A parametric Markov renewal model for predicting tropical cyclones in Bangladesh. Natural Hazards. ISSN 0921-030X

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Abstract or description

In this paper, we consider a Markov renewal process (MRP) to model tropical cyclones occurred in Bangladesh during 1877–2009. The model takes into account both the occurrence history and some physical constraints to capture the main physical characteristics of the storm surge process. We assume that the sequence of cyclones constitutes a Markov chain, and sojourn times follow a Weibull distribution. The parameters of the Weibull MRP jointly with transition probabilities are estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The model shows a good fit with the real events, and probabilities of occurrence of different types of cyclones are calculated for various lengths of time interval using the model. Stationary probabilities and mean recurrence times are also calculated. A brief comparison with a Poisson model and a marked Poisson model has also been demonstrated.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: G300 Statistics
Faculty: Previous Faculty of Computing, Engineering and Sciences > Engineering
Depositing User: Md ASADUZZAMAN
Date Deposited: 05 Aug 2014 15:01
Last Modified: 05 Aug 2014 15:01
URI: http://eprints.staffs.ac.uk/id/eprint/1928

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