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Forecasting tropical cyclones in Bangladesh: a Markov renewal approach

ASADUZZAMAN, Md and Latif, AHM Mahbub (2014) Forecasting tropical cyclones in Bangladesh: a Markov renewal approach. In: Computational Intelligence Techniques in Earth and Environmental Sciences. Springer, Dordrecht, The Natherlands, pp. 129-140. ISBN 978-94-017-8641-6

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Abstract or description

Bangladesh frequently suffers from tropical cyclones possibly due to its unique location. The funnel-shaped northern part of the Bay of Bengal causes tidal bores when cyclones make landfall. These tropical cyclones can be very devastating and can severely affect the coastline of Bangladesh. In this study we analyzed 135 tropical cyclones occurred in Bangladesh during 1877–2009 considering the physical characteristics of the storm surge process. For analyzing the storm surge process, a Markov renewal model that takes into account both the sojourn times and the transitions between different types of cyclones simultaneously was considered. Exponential distribution for the sojourn times was assumed to derive the probabilities of occurrence of different types of cyclones for various lengths of time intervals. Given the type of the last cyclone occurred probabilities of occurrence of the next cyclone are reported using the fitted Markov renewal model. The mean recurrence times of different type of cyclones were also calculated assuming ergodicity of the Markov renewal process.

Item Type: Book Chapter or Section
Subjects: G300 Statistics
Faculty: Faculty of Computing, Engineering and Sciences > Engineering
Depositing User: Md ASADUZZAMAN
Date Deposited: 12 Aug 2014 15:41
Last Modified: 12 Aug 2014 15:43
URI: http://eprints.staffs.ac.uk/id/eprint/1937

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