The 2023 Dengue Fatality in Bangladesh: Spatial and Demographic Insights

Introduction: In 2023, Bangladesh faced the largest dengue outbreak resulting in 321,179 confirmed cases and 1,705 fatalities. This study aims to characterise dengue fatalities and analyse their determinants and spatial influence.

Methods: Using data from the Management Information System of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, we characterised dengue mortality and conducted a linear regression analysis to determine the impact of age groups and gender on case fatality rate (CFR). We employed a Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression model to assess the spatial influence and impact of population factors.

Results: Women had a higher CFR compared to males (0.75% vs 0.38%, p<0.05). Among the recorded deaths, 74% (n=1262) developed dengue shock syndrome, 17% (n=290) expanded dengue syndrome, and 7% (n=119) dengue hemorrhagic fever. 10-year age groups significantly impacted CFR (estimate: 0.03, p < 0.01), suggesting that each additional decade increased CFR by 30% while gender was insignificant. Higher deaths were observed in the southern regions while spatial clusters were primarily concentrated around Dhaka City, the epicentre of the outbreak. Substantial effects from neighboring districts were also identified.

Conclusion: Bangladesh’s 2023 dengue outbreak resulted in significant mortality, particularly among older age groups. Fatalities were clustered in Dhaka city and its neighbouring districts, especially in the south.