Is a new world order taking shape in the age of AI? Mapping the global distribution of AI readiness and its implications for diplomacy and global order

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly seen as consequential for power, polarity, and diplomacy, yet direct evidence for its effects on international outcomes remains limited. Using the 2023 Government AI Readiness Index (GARI; 193 countries) and four complementary sources (IMF AIPI, selected Stanford AI Index signals, UN EGDI, and broadband access), we first establish that these indices converge on a common latent construct of national AI capacity, with high inter-index concordance (Cronbach’s α = 0.93; first principal component ≈ 76% of variance). We then map how this construct is distributed globally and how it associates with proxies for governance and diplomatic capacity. Cross-sectional results show strong concordance across indices and positive associations between readiness and governance/diplomacy proxies. As directional checks, we estimate short panel fixed-effects models and a staggered event study around countries’ first national AI-strategy adoption; effects are small and statistically uncertain, so we interpret all patterns as associations rather than causal impacts. Consistent with this evidence, we frame AI readiness not as a demonstrated driver of present diplomatic influence but as an indicator of latent capacity: it identifies a geographically dispersed yet highly capable group of states that hold the institutional, infrastructural, and organisational foundations most likely to enable influence within future AI-governance regimes. Readiness is broadly distributed across regions rather than concentrated in a single hegemon, consistent with a multi-regional configuration of capability atop a concentrated compute and cloud stack. Policy implications follow: governments should treat AI-readiness (skills, infrastructure, data governance, innovation capacity) as a foreign-policy priority and engage in inclusive, interoperable global governance (e.g., OECD, UNESCO, GPAI, UN) to avoid widening divides. Diplomats should integrate AI tools ethically and transparently while contributing to norm-setting. We report overlap-controlled sensitivities (given partial construct overlap) and align vintages where needed (EGDI biennial). Avoiding AI exceptionalism, we situate AI within a lineage of general-purpose technologies while noting its breadth, dual-use character, network effects, and rapid diffusion.