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Projecting spatiotemporal changes of precipitation and temperature in Iraq for different shared socioeconomic pathways with selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6

SALMAN, Saleem A., HAMED, Mohammed Magdy, SHAHID, Shamsuddin, AHMED, Kamal, SHARAFATI, Ahmad, ASADUZZAMAN, Md, ZIARH, Ghaith Falah, ISMAIL, Tarmizi, CHUNG, ‪Eun‐Sung, WANG, Xiao‐Jun and DEWAN, Ashraf (2022) Projecting spatiotemporal changes of precipitation and temperature in Iraq for different shared socioeconomic pathways with selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. International Journal of Climatology. ISSN 0899-8418

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Abstract or description

Changes in precipitation and temperature have crucial implications in the arid region due to their fragile environment. This study was an attempt to estimate possible spatiotemporal alteration of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature in Iraq. Statistical downscaling of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate model (GCM) simulations for different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) was utilized. The GCMs were ranked according to their skills in simulating climate research unit (CRU) precipitation and temperature climatology along with their seasonality. Nonlocal model output statistics (MOS) models were implemented using a support vector machine (SVM) for downscaling and projection of selected GCM precipitation and temperature. Results revealed ACCESS-CM2, BCC-CSM2-MR, GISS-E2-1-G and MRI-ESM2-0 GCMs are most suitable for Iraq. The spatiotemporal changes in precipitation indicated a substantial decrease to north (up to −7.8%·mm−1) while an increase (around 3.0%) to south for different SSPs. Far future (2060–2099) showed both increase and decrease in precipitation than near future (2020–2059). The precipitation was projected to reduce in winter and increase in summer for all climate zones during both periods. The maximum temperature was projected to increase by 4.5°C to the north and 0.9–2°C to the south. In contrast, the minimum temperature was projected to rise by 1.0–3.5°C to both north and south. Both maximum and minimum temperatures may increase; however, more increases might be in winter and less in summer. The minimum temperature increase will be higher than the maximum temperature in the cold northern region and vice versa. Uncertainty in precipitation and temperature projections was higher for the far-future period with higher SSPs than for the near-future period with lower SSPs. The results of this study can guide the development of strategic policies for climate resiliency development in Iraq.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: "This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Salman, S. A., Hamed, M. M., Shahid, S., Ahmed, K., Sharafati, A., Asaduzzaman, M., Ziarh, G. F., Ismail, T., Chung, ‪Eun-Sung, Wang, X.-J., & Dewan, A. (2022). Projecting spatiotemporal changes of precipitation and temperature in Iraq for different shared socioeconomic pathways with selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. International Journal of Climatology, 1– 19. which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7794. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited."
Uncontrolled Keywords: arid region, CMIP6, downscaling, global climate models, shared socioeconomic pathways, support vector machine
Faculty: School of Digital, Technologies and Arts > Engineering
Depositing User: Md ASADUZZAMAN
Date Deposited: 02 Sep 2022 09:18
Last Modified: 02 Sep 2022 09:18
URI: https://eprints.staffs.ac.uk/id/eprint/7429

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