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Thermal bioclimatic indicators over Southeast Asia: present status and future projection using CMIP6

HAMED, Mohammed Magdy, NASHWAN, Mohamed Salem, SHAHID, Shamsuddin, ISMAIL, Tarmizi bin, DEWAN, Ashraf and ASADUZZAMAN, Md (2022) Thermal bioclimatic indicators over Southeast Asia: present status and future projection using CMIP6. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. ISSN 0944-1344

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Abstract or description

Mapping potential changes in bioclimatic characteristics are critical for planning mitigation goals and climate change adaptation. Assessment of such changes is particularly important for Southeast Asia (SEA) — home to global largest ecological diversity. Twenty-three global climate models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used in this study to evaluate changes in 11 thermal bioclimatic indicators over SEA for two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), 2–4.5 and 5–8.5. Spatial changes in the ensemble mean, 5th, and 95th percentile of each indicator for near (2020–2059) and far (2060–2099) periods were examined in order to understand temporal changes and associated uncertainty. The results indicated large spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability in projected changes of bioclimatic indicators. A higher change was projected for mainland SEA in the far future and less in maritime region during the near future. At the same time, uncertainty in the projected bioclimatic indices was higher for mainland than maritime SEA. Analysis of mean multi-model ensemble revealed a change in mean temperature ranged from − 0.71 to 3.23 °C in near and from 0.00 to 4.07 °C in far futures. The diurnal temperature range was projected to reduce over most of SEA (ranging from − 1.1 to − 2.0 °C), while isothermality is likely to decrease from − 1.1 to − 4.6%. A decrease in isothermality along with narrowing of seasonality indicated a possible shift in climate, particularly in the north of mainland SEA. Maximum temperature in the warmest month/quarter was projected to increase a little more than the coldest month/quarter and the mean temperature in the driest month to increase more than the wettest month. This would cause an increase in the annual temperature range in the future.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use, but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22036-6
Uncontrolled Keywords: Global climate model; Southeast Asia; Shared socioeconomic pathways; Climate change; Uncertainty;
Faculty: School of Digital, Technologies and Arts > Engineering
Depositing User: Md ASADUZZAMAN
Date Deposited: 02 Sep 2022 09:30
Last Modified: 02 Sep 2022 09:30
URI: https://eprints.staffs.ac.uk/id/eprint/7430

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